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Showing posts with label Options. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Options. Show all posts

Tuesday, 27 October 2009

Memories of Black October 2008

On matters concerning The Week that Was:

October 2008


“Honesty is the recognition of the fact that the unreal is unreal and can have no value, that neither love nor fame nor cash is a value if obtained by fraud.”
Ayn Rand (Atlas Shrugged) Some would see the irony that last year was the 35th anniversary of Ayn Rand’s masterpiece. Ayn Rand was one of the modern prophets of Capitalism. Her followers, of which I am one, are in the highest echelons in Business, of which I am not. Significantly Alan Greenspan, ex Chairman of the Federal Reserve and Architect of this current fallout was a keen disciple.

After the events of last week, the cry is for bring Government intervention back into Capitalism. That the period of a Laissez-Faire economic model are over. It’s time to wake up and smell the coffee, which is what Rand’s quotation is all about. So what was unreal? This was unreal: In the 1980’s to buy a house one needed x3 or x3.5 ones income or 2.5 joint income. The average earnings at that time were about £15,000 so a house would in the region of £45,000 – 65,000 pounds. The interest rate being around 11%. Fast forward to 2007 and once more the income multiple of buying a house was x3 – x3.5 of income with the average earnings being £25,000 p.a therefore house prices should be about £75,000 – 95,000. Indeed back in the late nineties this was still the case. But now house prices are averaging £250,000. This means in order to buy a house ones income would have to be around £64,000 if a 10% deposit was put down. Put it another way, the short fall between the income multiple and current house prices shows a deficit of £155,000! That means that most mortgages are over extended, especially for 1st time buyers, by £155,000 of imaginary income.

So what happened? Two things: First’ Interests rates fell to around 5.5% which mean that money was cheap and so more spending which pushed house prices up. So the doubling of house prices only meant that while the value of the house had increased over 100% the cost of repayments were the same as when people were paying 11% on say £100,000. Secondly; People lied about how much they earned, and thus over extended themselves.

“Money is neither lost nor made, it’s simply transferred from one illusion to anotherGordon Gecko
“Wall Street”

And what an illusion, I shall spare you the description of how the banks deluded themselves for so long about whether or not “the King has got no Clothes” namely sub-prime loans. But why? Well for one Osma Bin Laden must be rolling about in his Cave right now. Rewind to the late 90’s early 00’s and we had the Dot.com Boom/Bust that challenged traditional valuation models and unhinged our fragile economies just about recovering from the last recession of the early 90’s. Just when we thought it could get no worse what happened?

BAM ! BAM!

And in 2001 the Twin Towers along with the Pentagon and airline passengers of four Planes shook not only the media audience but also the financial community. With the world economy already shaken by the Dot.com bubble drastic measures were required to stabilise the financial system. Alan Greenspan achieved this by reducing interest rates to such a level that money was dirty cheap and Banks and financial institutions began giving out Credit for anything secured or unsecured.

For us in the U.K we were Bombarded with television programmes such as: “The Property Ladder” showing us how we all can become property millionaires, then “A Place in the Sun” followed by “Location, Location” now we have “Dislocation, Dislocation”. Over the last 5-7 years the U.S Dollar has been suffering from depreciation against all the major currencies and Public funds have been financing one illegal war and another costly foreign policy that creates enemies rather than destroys them. The financial cost and human cost almost incalculable.

But the establishment have sighted the new bogeymen, not Al Quada, but the “Short Sellers” which is utter rubbish. While inflation is riding up and the cost of everything is hitting the ceiling, our Salaries and wages remain steadfastly stagnant. Pay rises of 3.7% are given when inflation is running up at 4.7% i.e a 1% pay cut. Property prices are taking a tumble and those remortgages to fund our desire to mimic the “Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous” are getting ever more expensive. If that isn’t bad enough the Government are using our money through taxes to Bail out companies that contributed to this mess.

We have been here before in the 1970’s and a retro advert of “Labour is’nt Working” is well and truly over due. Trading over the week was interesting, I did very well out the financial mess upon till Thursday then I gave back to the market Monday, Tuesday and Wednesdays profits in the space of 45 minutes! Such is the life of professional speculators. By Friday things were so crazy that our Floor manager told all traders to cut their positions at Market (The market price, to realise any profits or losses) it’s the financial equal to cease firing, or rain stops play. Of course the Stock Market rallied because all the short sellers had to cover their positions and you can only do that buy buying to close your position.

Wednesday, 29 October 2008

Introduction - The Reason behind the Blogspot



I am British Born and Bred with a Nigerian Father, late and Jamaican mother, a rare combination in the 60's. Having grown up without my father I decided to visit Nigeria in search of him. To cut a long story short I discovered my Fathers homeland in Ekiti state and it was revealed to me that I was of Royal Birth, letters Patent from the Nigerian High Commission. I am of the Royal Household of Agungun, Igbara Odo the Arajaka being HRH Edward Jaiyola.

Because I was not connected to my Nigerian side, I had not bothered to visit Nigeria all these years due mainly from malicious rumours of corruption and internally a "rogue state". However I came to the conclusion that I should bear witness myself and took a leap of faith to visit the place alone and with no contacts. What impressed me at the time was that while I had to pay one or two bribes to Nigerian custom officials, at the borders ironically, overall the people were very friendly and helpful on many levels.

I almost felt ashamed that I held the views, that had been portrayed to me in the media and decided to study Nigerian History Old and recent. Especially in regards to traditional rulers and their diminishing powers due to the nascent elites of the political classes. If we can remember the Traditional Rulers were very much a part of the Colonial policy of "Indirect Rule" only to be discredited by the young educated elite that were forming the new political and power base.
Visiting the Town of my father and the welcome I received as a Prince, I realised the dichotomy between the “new” power base of the Politicians and the still respected Traditional rulers, whose status had tumbled from being demi gods to almost puppets of the Federal Government.

Having visited Africa a number of times in different countries, one cannot but be touched by the spirit of the continent and at the same time the poverty of the peoples. One can be overwhelmed by it. Where doe’s one start to help? I decided that through focusing in the areas of where my roots are more could be achieved.



You cannot “save” the whole of Africa but you can certainly help and assist a small community, we in the West have many opportunities to do so. This is where the idea of the network first came, however it has not borne any fruit.

Another paradox of discovering that I am a Prince is that I do not have a Princely income or lifestyle so I have been working on trying to generate income, it goes without saying legally, to enable me to improve my own circumstances and then that of my community. I learned that being a Prince in Nigeria can be a burden if you do not have the relevant funds or employment, cousins of mine are too ashamed to take “lowly work” due to the perception and status inhabitants have of what a prince should be doing, also due to polygamy there are an almost surplus of Princess & Princesses. Many in an attempt to be “modern” drop their title altogether especially when they migrate to the City.

Now the main challenge is this. The words Prince & Nigeria in the world means corruption, 419 and other scams. I find it very lazy that the Nigerian government doesn’t do more to counter this image. But the fact remains this is the belief of many, neither doe’s it help that a small and cunning group of individuals or syndicates through their activities help in perpetuating this tarnishing Nigeria’s reputation ( though it has been tarnished ever since independence) . Nonetheless, it is believed that by leading through example one can dispel the myth that “All Nigerians, and all Nigerian Princes are self proclaimed fraudsters. Reading this you can imagine this is a humongous task for a small and lone individual to assume.


What I am looking to achieve is to use the power of the Internet and today’s global commerce and harness it between London and Lagos. For the objective of Profit, with those profits the money could be used for social purposes. I am a great believer that more important than University education, that generates a dissatisfied youth as on graduation the jobs are not there and is a major cause of the Brain drain, that the promotion of apprenticeships would do more to help Nigeria, with skills in Building, electronics, IT, Hairdressing, Roofing, etc. Also the Tourism industry.

To this end I intend to form a Proprietary Futures trading company based in London & Lagos (or Possibly Accra Ghana). This would enable a few fortunate future West African traders to use their intelligence and develop their skills in trading Futures Contracts in West Africa. West Africa is abundant with commodities such as Crude Oil, Sugar, Coco, Gold even Palm Oil. Such products are trading on the international exchanges but with minimum of African involvement.

The Proprietary Trading firm would be of a purely specualtive nature but the business would be at the souce of many commodities. It would also trade other financial products such as Government Bonds etc. The savings made in location and Traders costs would make the venture profitable for all stakeholders, Traders, Investors and Directors alike. However before we can go progress there is ground work to do. This is in the area of knowing how best to trade. This is what this website will be primarily about, African issues and trading issues.

Today Africa, a long neglected continent, is back en vogue, while France has never forgotten it’s involvement, and Britain’s has been at arms length, the new superpowers namely America and China who are taking an interest, and the dogma of the cold war has unfrozen the bipartisan relationships of yesteryear. Western Africa with it’s new democracies and global technology has meant unlimited opportunities for Africa which, in my opinion need and require the Diasporas to give an interpretation of the implications this can and will have on Africa, and hopefully entice them to return and build the country up.

Finally I hope this has answered any questions you may have had based on the purpose of my blogspot. I will feature programmes and ventures and how they may achieve my aims.

With Kind Regards

The Prince